Prob Sim

Prob Sim — shown in full detail, with its proof: a deterministic content-address recomputable from the component's name.

peacegeneticsethnogenesisancientalphabetsifamusicai-movieshistoryglagolitictrinity-sciencessurvival · classical

Tech & mentality for peace — a survival hazard

peacekeeping 0.45contact / rehumanization 0.95security dilemma 1.30dual-use (strong use it better) 1.15

yearly hazard 3.2% · still at peace after 40y 27% · never reaches 0 (tech-ends-war falsified)

A cohort of post-war countries decays out of peace at a yearly recurrence hazard (~40%/decade, Collier; peacekeeping cuts it >55%, Fortna). Peacekeeping & contact bend the curve up, the security dilemma & dual-use bend it down — and no setting reaches zero relapse. Peace is a conditional portfolio, not a switch; tech-ends-war stays falsified by construction.

✓ proven · content-address 5a2c59ba-d9d2-88be-bf63-4256a6212fb7 — declared, placed, mounted, and recomputable from the component's name.